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sun 發表於 2018-5-5 13:50

謊言、下流行為、種族主義:川普的第一年

謊言、下流行為、種族主義:川普的第一年Year One in Donald Trump’s World羅傑·科恩2018年1月22日



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ABBAS MOMANI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]RAMALLAH, West Bank — Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, finally lost it this month. After a year of bamboozling signals from President Trump, including a cordial White House meeting last May followed by a blowup in Bethlehem weeks later, Abbas dismissed Trump’s peace efforts as the “slap of the century.” He ruled out American mediation.[/size]

[size=1.125]約旦河西岸拉姆安拉——這個月,巴勒斯坦總統馬哈茂德·阿巴斯(Mahmoud Abbas)終於忍無可忍了。一年來,川普總統一直在發送令人困惑的信號,比如去年5月在白宮舉行了一次熱情友好的會議,幾周後又在伯利恆大發雷霆。如今,阿巴斯把川普的和平努力斥為「世紀耳光」。他不再考慮美國的調停。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]He called the American ambassador to Israel an “offensive human being” and pronounced the Oslo Accords dead. His tirade was as much an expression of Palestinian impotence as resolve. All Abbas has left is words. Still, it was a striking requiem for the Israeli-Palestinian “ultimate deal” that Trump promised.
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[size=1.125]他把美國駐以色列大使稱為「討厭的人」,並宣布奧斯陸協議已死。他的激烈抨擊既表現出決心,也顯示出巴勒斯坦的無能。阿巴斯也只能嘴上說說了。然而這對川普承諾的巴以「終極協議」來說依然是一曲驚人的安魂曲。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]So it goes with a president whose foreign policy watchword is “incoherence,” when it’s not outright indecency of the “shithole” variety. Trump has honed offensiveness to a fine art. A diplomatic deal is built with stubborn persistence, not conjured through insult. Only the genius in chief can know how it made sense, a year into Jared Kushner’s Middle Eastern diplomatic labors and before they had yielded a peace plan, to torpedo his efforts.[/size]

[size=1.125]所以說,這位總統的外交政策箴言就是「不連貫」,雖說它不像「糞坑」這類言辭那樣,顯然很不體面。川普已經把冒犯打磨為一種精緻的藝術。外交協議應該建立在頑固的堅持之上,而不是出人意料地通過侮辱創造出來。只有這位天才統帥自己才知道,在賈里德·庫什納(Jared Kushner)進行了一年的中東外交工作之後,不等制定出一項和平計劃就徹底破壞他的努力,這樣做到底有什麼意義。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]That is what Trump’s recognition last month of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and subsequent tweeted boast that he’d taken Jerusalem “off the table,” achieved. It was a provocation. To address Jerusalem, city of passions, with such truculence was to invite disaster, as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary James Mattis tried to impress on a president captive to his impulses.[/size]

[size=1.125]上月川普承認耶路撒冷是以色列的首都,後來又發推得意地表示耶路撒冷的問題「不容談判」,這就是他會得到的結果。這是一種挑釁。耶路撒冷是一座充滿激情的城市,要用這樣好鬥的態度來解決它的問題,只會招來災禍,國務卿雷克斯·蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)和國防部長詹姆斯·馬蒂斯(James Mattis)也試圖讓這位愛衝動的總統明白這一點。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]The Palestinians have seen the president in all his facets. “Trump was so agitated at the Bethlehem meeting, shouting, accusing Abbas of incitement, saying Abbas was not the nice man he’d believed — it was awful,” Muhammad Shtayyeh, a member of the Fatah Central Committee, told me. “But at their next meeting in September, things were fine. Then, all of a sudden, we get this unilateral Jerusalem measure that sabotages everything. So, for us, what sort of message is the president sending?”[/size]

[size=1.125]巴勒斯坦人已經看到了總統的每一面。「在伯利恆會議上川普如此激動,大喊大叫,指責阿巴斯煽動,說阿巴斯不是他以為的那個體面人——真是太糟糕了,」法塔赫中央委員會成員穆罕默德·什塔葉(Muhammad Shtayyeh)告訴我。「但在他們9月舉行的下一次會議上,一切正常。然後,突然之間,我們得到了這個單方面的耶路撒冷方案,它破壞了一切。那麼,對我們來說,總統到底發出了什麼樣的信號呢?」[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]One year into the Trump presidency, a lot of people around the world are asking that question. A nation of erratic disruption and “America First” belligerence has supplanted the underwriter of the post-1945 global order. The multilateral institutions of that order — from the United Nations to NATO — are mistrusted by the president. A void has opened up. Neither chaos nor China has quite filled it yet. In Gramsci’s words, written between the 20th century’s two global conflagrations, “The old is dying, and the new cannot be born.”[/size]

[size=1.125]川普上任一年之後,世界各地的很多人都在問這個問題。這個國家動盪不安,信奉好鬥的「美國優先」,它取代了那個1945年後全球秩序的擔保者。所有維持這一秩序的多邊機構——從聯合國到北約——都不被總統所信任。一個真空已經出現。現在會填補它的既不是混亂,也不是中國。用葛蘭西(Gramsci)在20世紀兩次全球大戰之間寫下的話來說,「老的已經行將就木,新的還無法出生。」[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]Trump’s universe is a place of dread, not deals. If there was no catastrophe in the first year, the possibility of one in the second was ratcheted up, from North Korea to Iran. In the National Security Strategy published in December, the subheading under “Diplomacy and Statecraft” is “Competitive Diplomacy” — not cooperation. Money is apparently no object to ensure “weapons systems that clearly overmatch” in “lethality.” Diplomacy, by contrast, requires “efficient use of limited resources.” The evisceration of the State Department and big increases in military budgets reflect Trump’s mind-set.[/size]

[size=1.125]川普的宇宙裡充斥著懼怕,而不是交易。如果他上任後的第一年沒有發生災難,那麼在第二年裡,從朝鮮到伊朗,發生災難的可能性已經出現提升。在12月發表的《國家安全戰略報告》(National Security Strategy)中,「外交與治國方案」下的小標題是「競爭性外交」——而不是合作外交。要保證「武器系統」在「殺傷力」方面「明顯超過對手」,花錢顯然不在話下。相反,外交方面則需要「有效利用有限的資源」。對國務院預算的削減和軍費預算的大幅增加反映了川普的思維。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]His nuclear brinkmanship with North Korea seems to involve a belief that nuclear war might just be feasible as a means, short of a blood bath, to bloody Kim Jong-un’s nose. That — and I’m being charitable — is hard to imagine. Limited nuclear war is a near oxymoron. It is not inconceivable, however, especially if Trump begins to feel cornered by the Russia investigation and in need of a foreign policy surprise. New lower-yield nuclear weapons, whose threshold for use might be lower, are contemplated in the Pentagon’s draft [url=https://www.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/NPR/]Nuclear Posture Review[/url]. The surprise could also come with Iran. The president’s foolish undermining of the Iran nuclear deal is perverse. If North Korea could have been stopped short of a bomb, as Iran has been, even Trump’s White House would be happy.[/size]

[size=1.125]他對朝鮮採取的核邊緣戰略似乎表明,他相信核戰爭可能是一種可行的手段,不用血流成河,就能給金正恩迎頭痛擊。這種情況——我厚道地說——很難想像。有限的核戰爭近乎一種矛盾修辭。然而,這並不是匪夷所思的,特別是如果川普開始對通俄門的調查感到不滿,並且需要在外交政策方面帶來驚人之舉。五角大廈的《核態勢評估報告》(Nuclear Posture Review)草案考慮了新的低當量核武器,其使用門檻可能較低。伊朗方面也可能帶來意外。總統愚蠢地破壞伊朗核協議是非常任性的行為。如果朝鮮能像伊朗那樣,在造出炸彈前停止核計劃,就連川普的白宮都會為此感到高興的。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]But Trump is deaf to reason. He talks of revived American greatness. Yet, as president, he has not set foot in California, where American technology and innovation create companies that capture the world’s imagination. All that interests him is that Californians tend to dislike him. Disrespect, whether domestic or foreign, is intolerable to him.[/size]

[size=1.125]但是川普聽不進任何道理。他談到復興美國的偉大榮光。然而,上任以來,他還沒有去過加利福尼亞州,在那裡,美國的科技與創新締造了眾多吸引全世界遐想的公司。他關心的只是加利福尼亞人大都不喜歡他。他不能容忍絲毫不敬,無論是來自國內還是國外。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]A global power shift long preceded Trump; China’s share of global output rose to about 15 percent from less than 4 percent in the past two decades. The Obama presidency talked down American greatness. In Syria, Barack Obama’s abdication was complete. But through dereliction, President Trump has fast-forwarded this American retreat.[/size]

[size=1.125]早在川普上台之前,全球的權力轉移就已經開始;中國在全球的產出份額從20年前的4%以下,上升到15%左右。歐巴馬總統任內,美國的偉大榮光已經減色。在敘利亞,貝拉克·歐巴馬的退出戰略已經完成。但是,川普總統以不負責任的方式加速了美國的撤退。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]Of course, mistrust of America’s rivals is not misplaced. Russia and China, ideological foes, are in an assertive and expansionist mood. Russia has won in Syria. It has not retreated in Ukraine. European nations, including Hungary, have proved susceptible to Vladimir Putin’s democratic authoritarianism. Russian cyberattacks on Western democracies have proved disruptive, especially in the United States.[/size]

[size=1.125]當然,對美國的對手表示不信任並不是錯誤的。俄羅斯和中國是美國的意識型態敵人,它們都處於一種自信和擴張主義的情緒之中。俄羅斯在敘利亞獲得了勝利。它在烏克蘭沒有撤軍。包括匈牙利在內的歐洲國家已被證明很容易受到弗拉基米爾·普丁(Vladimir Putin)的民主專制主義影響。俄羅斯對西方民主國家的網路攻擊亦已被證明是破壞性的,特別是在美國。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]President Xi Jinping of China, in a speech late last year, offered his nation’s model as “a new option for other countries and nations who want to speed up their development while preserving their independence.” This amounted to a remarkable expression of self-confidence. It is of a piece with the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, an attempt to weave other countries’ fates into China’s growing ambitions.[/size]

[size=1.125]中國國家主席習近平在去年年底的一次演講中提出,中國的發展模式,「給世界上那些既希望加快發展又希望保持自身獨立性的國家和民族提供了全新選擇。」這是一種對自信心的驚人表達。它是「一帶一路」計劃的一部分,該計劃企圖把別國的命運融入中國不斷壯大的野心之中。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]As the Cold War demonstrated, such challenges to American interests are best confronted through coherent strategy backed by a credible threat of force and a clear set of values. This, however, is not Trump’s thing. Value-free outbursts are. The president is “so boxed in on Russia that he’s deprived of any ability to conduct a policy, and that paralysis is dangerous,” Jonathan Eyal, a London-based strategic analyst, told me. On nuclear weapons and on Syria, the United States has no mechanism for dialogue with Russia at the highest level because Trump is frozen in genuflection to Putin, his own National Security Strategy notwithstanding.[/size]

[size=1.125]正如冷戰所表明的那樣,對美國利益的這種挑戰,最好通過連貫的戰略來對抗,這種戰略要以可行的武力威脅和明確的價值觀體系為支柱。然而,這不是川普所擅長的。他擅長的是毫無價值觀可言的突然爆發。倫敦戰略分析師喬納森·埃亞爾(Jonathan Eyal)對我說,總統「在俄羅斯問題上完全被困住了,失去了執行任何政策的能力,這種無能為力是危險的。」在核武器和敘利亞問題上,美國缺乏與俄羅斯進行最高級別對話的機制,因為川普對普丁一味卑躬屈膝,置自己的國家安全戰略於不顧。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]With China, too, policy has veered: trade bellicosity one moment, blandishments designed to enlist Beijing’s help in squeezing North Korea the next. Xi, deploying pomp and flattery during the president’s visit last year, knows how to get Trump where he wants him. America First makes China look like the more responsible global power. Tillerson labors to open diplomatic channels to Pyongyang; Trump tells his secretary of state he’s “wasting his time.” In the end the confidence of both China and Russia is buttressed by Trump’s wackiness and compromised hesitations.[/size]

[size=1.125]對中國的政策也轉變了:先是在貿易方面擺出好戰的姿態,而後為了爭取北京對朝鮮的壓制又對它大肆奉承。去年,在川普訪問北京期間,習近平安排了盛大的場面,對總統說了很多恭維話,他知道如何牽著川普的鼻子走。「美國優先」政策讓中國看起來像是更負責任的全球大國。蒂勒森努力打開與平壤溝通的外交管道;川普告訴國務卿說,他是在「浪費時間」。最終,中國和俄羅斯的信心都因為川普的荒唐和妥協的猶豫而進一步增強。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]Last September, Trump met with Emmanuel Macron, the young president of France, who, unlike Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, has a relationship with him. Syria came up. Trump said he’d hit Syria with 50 missiles after the chemical-weapons infringement. “Didn’t I?” he asked his aides who, in cowering unison, confirmed he had. Iran came up. Macron, like other European leaders, is concerned that the nuclear deal Trump opposes be upheld. Trump was uninterested. He veered off on a bizarre tangent about the trade France does with Iran.[/size]

[size=1.125]去年9月,川普會見了法國年輕的總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克宏(Emmanuel Macron)。與德國總理安格拉·梅克爾(Angela Merkel)不同,馬克宏與川普有些交情。談到敘利亞問題時,川普表示,在敘利亞違反化學武器規定後,他用50枚導彈打擊了它。「是這樣吧?」他問助手們。助手們畏畏縮縮地一致證實的確如此。在提到伊朗問題時,馬克宏和其他歐洲領導人一樣,認為川普反對的核協議應該得到維護。川普對此不感興趣。他突然奇怪地轉移話題,談起法國與伊朗的貿易。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]It’s tough to do business with Trump — not least for those who serve him. This month offered the extraordinary spectacle of the United States ambassador to London, Woody Johnson, rebuffing Trump over the new American Embassy that the president had described as being in an “off location” and costing $1.2 billion. It didn’t “cost the U.S. taxpayer a cent,” Johnson retorted. Trump was really looking for a reason to cancel a British trip that would have provoked protests. It has come to this: an American president who’s unwelcome in London![/size]

[size=1.125]跟川普打交道很難——尤其是對那些為他服務的人來說。本月,美國駐倫敦大使伍迪·詹森(Woody Johnson)上演了驚人的一幕,他斷然否認川普對美國新使館的陳述——總統稱該使館「位置偏遠」,耗資12億美元。詹森反駁稱,該使館沒有「花美國納稅人一分錢」。川普實際上是想找個藉口,取消可能引發抗議的英國之行。已經到了這種地步:一位美國總統在倫敦不受歡迎![/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]The unthinkable is now commonplace. Perhaps that’s what Trump wanted above all: to shake up Western complacency over how the world could, and could not, be run. That’s not a bad thing. The anger he intuited among the losers from globalization was real. His words have been worse than his deeds. The global economy is purring. The terrorists of the Islamic State have taken a devastating blow. In a best-case scenario, his wild North Korean threats are just a bad-cop show.[/size]

[size=1.125]不可思議的事情現在已經司空見慣。或許這正是川普最想要的:動搖西方對如何治理世界,以及不能如何治理世界的自滿情緒。這不是件壞事。他憑直覺感受到全球化進程中的失敗者的憤怒,這種憤怒是真實的。他的話語比他的行為更糟糕。全球經濟正在復甦。伊斯蘭國的恐怖分子遭到了毀滅性打擊。在最好的情況下,他對朝鮮的瘋狂威脅只是一場糟糕的警察秀。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]But something terrible, and perhaps irreparable, has happened. The idea of America has been sullied. It has fallen victim to Trump’s untruth, indecency, racism and contempt for the values without which American greatness is inconceivable. The president is at home with despots because he sees himself in them.[/size]

[size=1.125]但是,某種可怕的、也許是不可挽回的事發生了。美國的理念被玷污了。它成了川普的謊言、下流行為、種族主義以及對價值觀的蔑視的犧牲品。如果沒有價值觀,美國的偉大榮光是不可想像的。總統和專制者打成一片,因為他覺得自己是他們中的一員。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to Washington, told me: “I cannot explain to my 13-year-old daughter, who was born in the United States, that for her, President Trump should be the symbol of the values we stand for: human dignity, personal freedom and so on. A fundamental anchor has been lost.”[/size]

[size=1.125]前德國駐華盛頓大使沃爾夫岡·伊申格爾(Wolfgang Ischinger)對我說:「我無法跟我出生在美國的13歲女兒說,川普總統象徵著是我們所支持的價值觀:人的尊嚴和個人自由等等。我們失去了一個重要的精神支柱。」[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]The disarray Trump has engendered reflects the degree to which he has turned the meaning of the word “America” on its head. He has empowered bigots, thugs, bullies, racists, nationalists and nativists the world over.[/size]

[size=1.125]川普引發的混亂反映出,他已經在很大程度上顛覆了「美國」這個詞的含義。他為全世界的偏執狂、惡棍、霸凌者、種族主義者、民族主義者和本土主義者增添了力量。[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]In Israel, I asked Hannah Pollin-Galay, a senior lecturer in Yiddish literature at Tel Aviv University, what she thought of Trump’s Jerusalem declaration. “It destroyed hope on both sides,” she said. “It gives right-wing nationalists the stage and sense they are right. Look! The rightist strategy works. You are rewarded for not listening to the Palestinians, for not sharing holy ground. That is disastrous, the most dangerous thing imaginable.”[/size]

[size=1.125]在以色列,我詢問特拉維夫大學(Tel Aviv University)意第緒語文學高級講師漢娜·波林-加萊(Hannah Pollin-Galay)對川普的耶路撒冷宣言有何看法。「它毀掉了雙方的希望,」她說,「它給右翼民族主義者提供了舞台,讓他們感覺自己是對的。看!右翼策略起作用了。他們沒有傾聽巴勒斯坦人的意見,沒有分享聖地,卻得到了回報。那是災難性的,是你能想到的最危險的事。」[/size]

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[font=Georgia, &quot][size=1.125]Gramsci thought the perilous interregnum between world orders was a time of “the most varied morbid symptoms.” Trump’s second year will show whether those he has unleashed, and nurses within himself, can still be contained short of what he calls “fire and fury.”[/size]

[size=1.125]葛蘭西認為,世界平穩秩序之間的危險過渡期是「病態癥狀最多」的時期。川普任期的第二年將展現出,他釋放的和內心積聚的病態情緒能否得到控制,而不致出現他所說的「炮火與怒火」這樣的情況。[/size]

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[size=0.8125]歡迎在Twitter上關注本文作者Roger Cohen [url=https://twitter.com/NYTimesCohen]@NYTimesCohen[/url]。
翻譯:紐約時報中文網
[url=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/20/opinion/sunday/trump-first-year.html]點擊查看本文英文版。[/url][/size]

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